Cubs’ fatal flaw that will derail hot start to 2024 season
Following their incredible year of breaking the curse in 2016, the Chicago Cubs have been a quiet team. Though it’s difficult to be furious about an eight-year title drought when you’ve only seen one in the past century, there was a hint of restlessness in the air at Wrigley Field, especially after the Cubbies choked out a postseason berth last season by losing 12 of their final 16 games.
It has seemed as though a new era is beginning this season. With an 18-12 record and only half a game behind the extremely hot Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, the Cubs are dominating right out of the gate. Sadly, though, the Cubs also have a weakness. Due to a recent injury, there is a roster deficiency that doesn’t have.
The Cubs don’t hit well against righties
That’s truly all there is to it. The Cubs lineup goes into Death Star mode when a lefty is on the mound, posting a second-best.820 OPS against those pitchers. Nevertheless, that OPS plummets to a pitiful.678, just good for 19th, when up against righties.
It makes sense because Cody Bellinger has been the Cubs’ primary left-handed power hitter for the last two seasons. Bellinger had a strong 2023 season and helped the team maintain an OPS of.734 versus righties, which was still only enough for 13th in the league. However, Bellinger’s injuries and relative ineffectiveness have rendered the bats completely uninteresting when a righty hits the mound.
Do you want some of the offenders? With an OPS of 1.088 versus lefties and a.591 against righties, Dansby Swanson stands out on the field. In contrast, Nico Hoerner has a.929 versus lefties and a.656 against righties. Compared to.819, Christopher Morel is at.627. Even Ian Happ, who switch-hits and should thus assist dispel the problem, is only.638 against righties while they are.737 against them.
Michael Busch, whom the front management had the wisdom to move for from his position crunch in Los Angeles to play first base full-time in Chicago, is the only thing holding the Cubs back against right-handed pitching. Busch is nearly unplayable versus lefties and excels against righties, but the Cubs have more important things to worry about. Also, if the front desk is unable to
What are righties doing to shut the Cubs down?
Remarkably, the response differs for every player. Swanson is only hitting.200 against sliders, who he has seen a lot of. Hoerner’s statistics are a mixed bag; he has good numbers against the slider but bad ones against the sinker. However, according to xWOBA, those should be the opposite.
Furthermore, Morel is batting just.111 with a 30% K rate and experiencing night terrors regarding changeups. Specifically, it appears that the Cubs do poorer the higher the velocity. The Cubs have a.637 team OPS, which is ninth worst in the league, when fireballing relievers enter the game in the seventh inning or later. In contrast, their OPS from innings one through six is.736—the ninth-best in the league.
Though it may not be fair to assess based only on a small sample size given the Cubs’ current overall slump, it is important to consider the context of their last four games—three of which were losses and the fourth, a win in which they were shut out until the eighth inning. After facing about every type of pitcher you can imagine, the Cubs have only allowed five earned runs in those four games against right-handed pitching and have struck out thirty times in 30.2 innings.
Who would be realistic adds for the Cubs?
Now that we have solid evidence that Chicago requires assistance while playing righties, we can move on to more enjoyable things and begin anticipating the trade deadline. Even while one left-handed bat could not be enough to make this ‘fatal defect’ go away, it may still be very helpful. With that in mind, let’s search the non-contender rosters for possible trade candidates who could be able to hammer some right-handed pitchers at Wrigley Field in August and September.
Ryan McMahon signed a long-term contract deal with the Colorado Rockies that runs through 2027, although to be honest, they might not even be halfway good by then. With an.895 OPS against righties, McMahon can cover third base if the Cubs decide to shift Morel about the diamond like they did last season.
However, McMahon might be a bit of a pipe dream, so how about Jesse Winker of the Washington Nationals? The Cubs brought Jeimer Candelario over a season ago, so they are no strangers to facing the Nats at the deadline. After struggling in his previous two injury-plagued seasons, Winker was on the verge of being released from the league.
However, he had a breakthrough with Washington this spring and is now eating righties for lunch, amassing a.977 OPS in 72 plate appearances.
And the Cubs should be calling the executive offices in Phoenix on the hour about Joc Pederson if they are fortunate enough to see the Arizona Diamondbacks eliminated from the playoff chase by the deadline.
Although his time with the Cubs in 2021 wasn’t the most enjoyable part of his career, he has since had nothing but success, winning the World Series in Atlanta the same year and going on to have success in San Francisco and Arizona. Pederson would be a fantastic Cub in 2024 if he were to get out to another strong start.
That’s it, Cubs supporters. We made a bad situation better. All your team has to do to recreate 2016 on the North Side is sign one of those three lefties before the deadline.