The Sweet 16 weekend is finally here, featuring one of the most anticipated matchups between two conference rivals: the No. 2 seed Tennessee Volunteers and the No. 3 seed Kentucky Wildcats. This is also the only contest this year between a No. 2 seed and a No. 3 seed in the tournament.
Both teams are currently playing exceptional basketball. Tennessee defeated the No. 15 seed Wofford Terriers 77-62 in their first-round matchup. They then defeated the No. 7 seed UCLA Bruins 67-58 in the second round.
On the other hand, the Wildcats defeated the No. 14 seed Troy Trojans 76-57 and followed that up with a victory over the No. 6 seed Illinois Fighting Illini 84-75. They have also been playing without their second-leading scorer, Jaxson Robinson, who was ruled out for the season back in February.
On “The Paul Finebaum Show,” SEC Network analyst Paul Finebaum shared his prediction for the game. While he acknowledges that both teams are performing well, he finds one factor hard to overlook.
“I favor Tennessee in that game, not to burst your bubble,” Finebaum said. “I just think, a lot of the cliches that you’ve probably already heard, but I think the idea of Tennessee losing three straight to Kentucky this year is just hard for me to imagine. But Kentucky is playing at a very high level right now. They’re healthier than they’ve been, but that’s how I see it.”
As Finebaum mentioned, Kentucky won both regular-season matchups against Tennessee. The first game took place at Food City Center in Knoxville, Tenn., where Kentucky emerged victorious with a score of 78-73. Kobe Brea was the leading scorer for Kentucky in that game, contributing 18 points with a perfect shooting performance of 5-of-5 from the field and 3-of-3 from beyond the arc. Robinson also played in this game, scoring 17 points.
The second matchup occurred at Rupp Arena in Lexington, KY. The Wildcats won that game 75-64, showcasing a well-balanced offensive attack with four players scoring 11 or more points. Otega Oweh and Ansley Almonor led the team with 13 points each, while Robinson did not play in this game.
A critical factor in both matchups has been Kentucky’s defense against three-point shooting. Tennessee has shot just 14-of-63 (22.2%) from beyond the arc in those two games, significantly below its season average of 34.5%. Additionally, leading scorer Chaz Lanier has struggled against Kentucky. While he averages 18.1 points per game for the season, shooting 43.8% from the field and 41% from three-point range, he averages only 12.5 points per game against Kentucky, with shooting percentages of 29.6% from the field and 17.7% from three.
Lanier will likely need to have a standout performance when the two teams face off again this Friday at Lucas Oil Stadium at 7:39 p.m. ET, airing on TBS/truTV.