Film Study: Bucks need to get back to top-10 defense
Milwaukee must reestablish its defensive dominance to position itself as championship contenders once again.
The Bucks hope to rediscover the mojo that made them a top-10 defensive unit in the past.
Over the three years since they won the NBA championship in 2021, the Milwaukee Bucks are tied for the second best regular-season record (158-88, .642). But they’ve won just 10 total playoff games over that stretch, losing in the first round as a higher seed in both 2023 and 2024.
The primary reason for their postseason struggles has been health. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton have played together in only three of the Bucks’ 23 playoff games over these last three years. This team still has the core of a title contender and it may just need to be healthy in April and May.
But the Bucks also need to be better defensively than they were last season, when they fell off dramatically on that end of the floor. Ranking 19th and allowing 0.5 more points per 100 possessions than the league average, it was Milwaukee’s worst defensive season (by a healthy margin) in the last six years.
The Bucks’ defense was better after Doc Rivers took over as coach in late January, but still ranked in the middle of the pack over the last 36 games of the regular season.
Bucks record and efficiency, 2023-24
| Coach | W | L | OffRtg | Rank | DefRtg | Rank | NetRtg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin/Prunty | 32 | 14 | 120.4 | 2 | 116.3 | 19 | +4.0 | 9 |
| Rivers | 17 | 19 | 113.9 | 18 | 113.3 | 15 | +0.6 | 17 |
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions
Only two of the last 23 NBA championship teams ranked outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency in the regular season. Here are some numbers and film on what went wrong for the Bucks defensively last season and how they can get back into the top 10 on that end of the floor.
1. Changes in coverage
New coaches brought new defensive schemes to Milwaukee. According to Second Spectrum tracking, the Bucks saw the biggest change from 2022-23 to ’23-24 in how they defended the pick-and-roll. They also saw more changes with their mid-season coaching change.
Bucks’ ball-screen defense, last two seasons
| Season/coach | Picks | Blitz/Show | %Blitz/show | Switch | %Switch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 6,342 | 303 | 4.8% | 945 | 14.9% |
| Griffin/Prunty | 3,402 | 314 | 9.2% | 766 | 22.5% |
| Rivers | 2,558 | 331 | 12.9% | 811 | 31.7% |
via Second Spectrum tracking
Under former coach Adrian Griffin, the Bucks went away (to a degree) from the “drop” coverage they’d been playing for five seasons under Mike Budenholzer. When Rivers took over, he took them even further away.
Perhaps it was the right way to go. Opponents scored most efficiently when the Bucks were in their drop coverage, which wasn’t as effective as it was the season prior. Not only did opponents shoot better at the rim when Brook Lopez was there, he had to defend more shots at the rim (per minute on the floor) than he did in 2022-23.
According to Second Spectrum, Milwaukee allowed 52.7 drives per 100 possessions, third most in the league and up from 49.2 (ninth most) the season prior.
The quality of pick-and-roll coverage isn’t just about the big man. The defender on the ball also needs to do his part, directing the ball the right way. And the Bucks’ point-of-attack defense just wasn’t very good last season …
Lopez, who turned 36 in April, also struggled to keep guys in front of him when he ventured away from the basket …
2. More aggressive defense = more fouls, but not more turnovers
For the second straight season, the Bucks ranked in the top 10 in three of the four factors on defense (effective field goal percentage, rebounding percentage and free-throw rate), but they dropped in the rankings in all three categories. Only five teams saw a jump in opponent free-throw rate (FTA/FGA) from ’22-23 to last season, and the Bucks saw the third biggest.
Their opponents’ free-throw rate (and their opponents’ overall efficiency) was highest with reserves on the floor. Bobby Portis went from 2.3 (in ’22-23) to 3.4 fouls per 36 minutes, while Andre Jackson’s 5.8 fouls per 36 minutes were the most (by a huge margin) among 186 guards who played at least 500 minutes last season.
Fouls can also be tied back to point-of-attack defense and an inability to keep ball-handlers from getting into the paint …
While the Bucks’ defense ranked in the top 10 in three of the four factors, it ranked last in opponent turnover rate (11.9 per 100 possessions) for a second straight season. A more aggressive defensive scheme should create more turnovers, but while every other team had at least two players that averaged at least 2.6 deflections per 36 minutes (in at least 500 minutes played), the Bucks had none.
3. New additions should help on the ball
The Bucks didn’t have money to spend on free agents this summer, but they did add three, minimum-contract veterans — Delon Wright, Gary Trent Jr. and Taurean Prince — who could help them defensively.
Wright and Trent, especially, should help the Bucks force more turnovers, having averaged 4.1 and 3.1 deflections per 36 minutes, respectively, over the last three years. Wright has a long wingspan, while Trent is aggressive with his hands…
The Bucks did rank higher defensively against the league’s top-10 offenses (10th at 116.2 points allowed per 100 possessions) than they did overall (19th) last season. Their defensive numbers were good — 106.9 allowed per 100 — in 677 minutes with their four returning starters on the floor together.
Lopez isn’t getting any younger and they’ll still need better defense from the rest of the rotation, but the core group should get more minutes together this season. A healthier and more mobile Middleton, along with the new additions to the rotation, could have the Bucks in (or near) the top 10 on defense again. If they can get there, things will be a lot more interesting at the top of the Eastern Conference.