Today’s elimination race at Martinsville Speedway presents the last opportunity for playoff drivers to qualify for next week’s championship race.
Ryan Blaney, who won this race last year to advance to the finals and subsequently claimed his first Cup title, finds himself in a must-win situation today (2 p.m. ET on NBC). Will he be able to replicate his success?
This race features various intriguing storylines as the 35th Cup race of the season unfolds.
1. What lengths will drivers go to?
Desperation often leads to memorable moments at this venue.
Last year, Blaney had to win to progress and did so. Meanwhile, William Byron, despite feeling unwell in his car, managed to qualify as well. Two years ago, Ross Chastain executed his remarkable “Hail Melon,” riding the wall in the final corners to gain enough positions for a spot in the championship race.
As for this race, Christopher Bell and Byron currently hold the last two transfer spots, with Byron noting that, given his competitors’ strengths at this track, he considers this a must-win. Several notable drivers sitting below the cutline include Kyle Larson (-7 points), Denny Hamlin (-18), Blaney (-38), and Chase Elliott (-43), all of whom have previously won at Martinsville.
What can we expect on race day? Already, this weekend has seen some drama: Taylor Gray expressed his discontent toward Christian Eckes after the Truck Series race, and Chandler Smith slapped Cole Custer following their Xfinity race confrontation.
Next up:
2. Who will advance or be left out of the title race?
Three weeks ago at the Charlotte Roval, Hendrick Motorsports had all four of its cars in contention for the Round of 8, marking a notable achievement for the organization.
Car owner Rick Hendrick remarked on that day, “Our goal was to get them into the Round of 8.”
However, things took a turn when Alex Bowman’s car was disqualified after the race.
Subsequent race wins by Joey Logano in Las Vegas and Tyler Reddick at Homestead meant only two Championship 4 spots remained. Hendrick Motorsports has three of the remaining six cars, which means they could potentially have half the field in the championship race or, conversely, be shut out for the first time since 2019.
Given that Hendrick has secured five of the last eight Martinsville victories, they are favored to have at least one representative in the title race, but the question remains: who will it be?
3. Will tire strategy play a significant role?
In a move to promote overtaking at short tracks, NASCAR has collaborated with Goodyear to produce tires that wear out more quickly for specific events.
This weekend’s right-side tire is the same option tire from both the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro and Richmond. The left-side tire is designed for increased wear.
Teams were allotted 45 minutes of practice to familiarize themselves with the new tires, which is longer than the usual 20 minutes.
Martin Truex Jr., who won the pole, noted a noticeable increase in tire wear compared to recent races: “It’s tough to predict how things will unfold, but we are seeing enough fall-off and tire degradation—the sticker tires are notably quicker than tires with 30, 40, or 50 laps on them. Let’s hope that trend continues.”
4. Will Denny Hamlin face more challenges at Martinsville?
Two years ago, Hamlin was poised to advance to the championship race when he was eliminated by Chastain’s dramatic maneuver on the final lap.
Though Hamlin has secured five victories at Martinsville, he has not won there since March 2015.
His chances worsened when he crashed during practice, forcing his team to make repairs. As a result, he will start at the back of the field after failing to qualify, which also gave him the least favorable pit stall selection at Martinsville.
Hamlin acknowledged that while making it to the Championship 4 is now significantly tougher, it’s still within reach.