College Football Playoff Committee Clarifies Indiana, BYU Ranking Over Tennessee
Unfortunate news for Tennessee.
The College Football Playoff Committee adhered to a widely discussed notion this week — the Tennessee-Georgia game is essentially a playoff elimination match.
Georgia dropped to No. 12 after their defeat by Ole Miss, while Tennessee was surpassed by BYU and Indiana despite winning against Mississippi State.
Keeping Tennessee at No. 7 positions the committee to easily push them out of the top 11 next week if they lose. Tennessee is a 10-point underdog as they prepare to face a Georgia team fighting for its season on Saturday night.
Tennessee rose to No. 4 in the coaches’ poll and No. 6 in the AP poll. Why did the committee differ? Due to a couple of close wins over average teams.
“Ultimately, it was the performances of Indiana and BYU last week, both securing significant wins,” CFP chair Warde Manuel stated. “Tennessee’s offense has lacked consistency, especially in the second half of the season. The committee felt that Indiana has shown strong play, highlighted by a close win over Michigan but dominating other opponents.
“BYU remains undefeated, with victories against two top-25 teams, SMU and Kansas State. When evaluating all teams, the committee determined that Indiana and BYU deserved the No. 5 and No. 6 spots, with Tennessee holding at No. 7.”
Big Ten Schedule’s Impact
The scarcity of elite matchups is clearing a path for teams like Penn State, Oregon, and Indiana to advance to the playoffs, provided Ohio State defeats Indiana this weekend. Likely, two of these teams may not need to play in a conference title game. Additionally, based on Tuesday’s rankings, they might not be penalized for it.
This is a reality in 16-team super-conferences.
In contrast, Tennessee faces Alabama and Georgia. Alabama has played Tennessee, LSU, and Georgia. Georgia has matched up against Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Texas. The Longhorns, on the other hand, are primarily credited with a win over Vanderbilt.
While not an official metric, the contrast between Big Ten and SEC schedules is notable.
Key Matchups to Watch
Several high-profile games will help clarify the rankings, starting with Tennessee-Georgia this weekend. A loss for Tennessee drops them into a crowded two-loss group. A victory could set them up for an SEC title run and likely eliminate Georgia.
Indiana’s matchup at Ohio State is crucial as it represents their only chance to play a top-tier opponent. What happens if Ohio State dominates?
The Texas-Texas A&M game could determine the SEC Championship landscape. An Aggies win would add an unexpected twist.
Notre Dame’s final games — hosting Army and visiting USC — are also important to monitor.
Ole Miss still has to visit Florida and host Mississippi State. Despite a rough loss to Kentucky, the Rebels remain in a solid position. The committee might need to evaluate which loss is more significant — away at Arkansas or at home to Kentucky.
Alabama faces Oklahoma on the road and hosts Auburn. They look strong after consecutive dominant wins, making up for their loss to Vanderbilt. The timing of losses often plays a role in rankings, and Alabama appears to be on favorable ground at the moment.
Oregon and Penn State are expected to win their remaining games. The Big 12 and ACC seem set for one bid each, which likely won’t impact the at-large race unless chaos ensues.
Final Note: Tennessee’s Fate Lies in Their Hands
Georgia’s season is hanging by a thread. Due to the Ole Miss win over Georgia, Tennessee’s season might be in the same situation. The simple takeaway for Tennessee this week: perform to secure their future.
Kirby Smart excels in high-stakes situations, adept at using media narratives for motivation. However, this year’s Georgia team seems different. Carson Beck’s play has declined without Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey, and the running game has struggled. Tennessee, with its formidable defensive front, has a real chance — especially if Nico Iamaleava is ready to play — to take control of their own destiny.