CFP Committee’s Top 25 Projections Post-Week 12: Potential Boise State Bye?
BYU’s loss to Kansas on Saturday might have more significant repercussions in the College Football Playoff race than a single defeat typically would.
If the CFP selection committee drops BYU from the top 12 and elevates Boise State, the Broncos could secure a first-round bye as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions, replacing a Big 12 team.
In such a scenario, No. 11 Tennessee would be excluded to accommodate one-loss BYU as the fifth-highest conference champion.
Controversy is far from over with the expanded playoff format.
At the top, there should be no major surprises after No. 1 Oregon narrowly won at Wisconsin. Georgia’s home win over Tennessee affected the two-loss team rankings, but to what extent remains to be seen.
Here’s a projected look at how the committee’s top 25 might shape up in its third ranking on Tuesday. This is a current snapshot, not a prediction for Selection Day, based on past performances and committee evaluations.
The 12-team playoff seeding differs from this ranking as the top four highest-ranked champions get byes, and the top five champions are guaranteed a spot.
1. Oregon Ducks (11-0) Why they might stay on top: Oregon overcame Wisconsin’s challenge on the road. It wasn’t perfect, but as an unbeaten team with wins over Ohio State, Boise State, Illinois, and Michigan, their résumé stands out. They also lead ESPN’s strength of record rankings.
Why they might slip: Unlikely after a Big Ten road win.
Important note: One more win secures Oregon’s spot in the Big Ten title game, but they look strong for the CFP even as a one-loss runner-up.
Upcoming game: Nov. 30 vs. Washington.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) Why they could be here: A dominant 31-7 win over Northwestern solidifies their position. Their only loss, by one point to No. 1 Oregon, gives them an edge among one-loss teams. The victory at Penn State remains a standout.
Why they could be lower: There’s little reason for a drop unless the committee re-evaluates Texas after their win at Arkansas or considers Georgia’s win over Tennessee significant.
Important note: Despite wins over Penn State and an upcoming Indiana match, Ohio State could face a tiebreaker scenario for the Big Ten title game.
Upcoming games: Nov. 23 vs. Indiana, Nov. 30 vs. Michigan.
3. Texas Longhorns (9-1) Why they could be here: The committee respects Texas’ performance, including a strong win at Arkansas. Their only defeat came against Georgia, but Ohio State’s only loss was to the No. 1 team.
Why they could be lower: Their schedule lacks a defining win. Head-to-head results might not favor them over other two-loss SEC teams.
Important note: Texas controls its path to the SEC title game.
Upcoming games: Nov. 23 vs. Kentucky, Nov. 30 at Texas A&M.
4. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-1) Why they could be here: They’ve maintained a high position due to quality wins and a narrow loss to Ohio State. Their victories over Illinois and UCLA look positive.
Why they could be lower: Indiana’s bye week won’t push them above PSU without a game.
Important note: A win over Indiana by Ohio State could influence PSU’s position.
Upcoming games: Nov. 23 at Minnesota, Nov. 30 vs. Maryland.
5. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0) Why they could be here: Indiana’s undefeated record, bolstered by strong metrics, helps offset a weaker schedule. Their game against Ohio State is critical.
Need to know: A close loss to Ohio State might still keep them in contention.
Upcoming games: Nov. 23 at Ohio State, Nov. 30 vs. Purdue.
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1) Why they could be here: Wins against Texas A&M and Georgia Tech support their résumé. Their sole loss was early in the season to Northern Illinois.
Why they could be lower: Other two-loss SEC teams have stronger records.
Upcoming games: Nov. 23 vs. Army, Nov. 30 at USC.
7. Miami Hurricanes (9-1) Why they could be here: Miami’s offensive dominance stands out. Despite a bye week, they retain ACC supremacy.
Important note: Running the table in the ACC should guarantee a first-round bye.
Upcoming games: Nov. 23 vs. Wake Forest, Nov. 30 at Syracuse.
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2) Why they could be here: A win over Mercer won’t impact their ranking much. Alabama’s head-to-head wins keep them above other two-loss SEC teams.
Important note: Head-to-head results may affect their final placement.
Upcoming games: Nov. 23 at Oklahoma, Nov. 30 vs. Auburn.
9. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2) Why they could be here: They maintain respect due to a win over Georgia. A bye week won’t likely shift their position.
Upcoming games: Nov. 23 at Florida, Nov. 29 vs. Mississippi State.
10. Georgia Bulldogs (8-2) Why they could be here: A win over Tennessee helps their case, but previous losses might limit them.
Upcoming games: Nov. 23 vs. Massachusetts, Nov. 29 vs. Georgia Tech.
11. Tennessee Volunteers (8-2) Why they could be here: The committee respects their win over Alabama but considers the loss to Arkansas worse.
Important note: Tennessee risks being bumped for Boise State as a conference champion.
Upcoming games: Nov. 23 vs. UTEP, Nov. 30 at Vanderbilt.
12. Boise State Broncos (9-1) Why they could be here: Boise State’s narrow loss to Oregon is more favorable than BYU’s recent defeat. Wins over UNLV and Washington State bolster their case.
Need to know: Being in the top 12 secures them a first-round bye as a conference champion.
Upcoming games: Nov. 23 at Wyoming, Nov. 29 vs. Oregon State.
Top 25 and Bracket Overview The full top 25 projection includes teams like BYU at 13, SMU, Texas A&M, and others. The seeding for the 12-team playoff follows, with key matchups in the first and quarterfinal rounds set.