The Detroit Lions secured a dominant 12-1 record after defeating their NFC North rivals, the Green Bay Packers.
The game concluded with a bold decision by
head coach Dan Campbell, who opted to go for it on 4th-and-1 with just 43 seconds remaining.
The Lions successfully ran out the clock, and Jake Bates nailed a 35-yard field goal to seal the victory.
While many fans are praising Campbell for his bold decision-making on fourth downs, one has to wonder whether the outcome would have been as celebratory had David Montgomery been stuffed on the 4th-and-1, potentially giving the Packers the ball back with a chance to win. It’s easy for people to label a coach a genius when a risky move pays off, but the narrative would likely be much harsher had the gamble failed.
This Lions team is arguably one of the best the city has ever seen, with the Lions considered Super Bowl favorites by most sportsbooks.
But Campbell’s aggressive approach hasn’t always been praised, especially after last year’s NFC Championship game, where his decision-making during crucial moments came under scrutiny.
In that game, Detroit held a commanding 24-7 lead at halftime, a lead made possible by Campbell’s decision to settle for a field goal from the three-yard line rather than going for it on 4th-and-goal.
This shift in approach suggested that Campbell was trying to find a balance between aggressive play-calling and a more cautious approach. But in the second half, that balance was quickly abandoned.
Up 24-10 with just over seven minutes left in the third quarter, the Lions faced a critical 4th-and-2 from the 49ers’ 28-yard line. Campbell again opted to go for it, and the play failed when Josh Reynolds dropped a catchable pass.
Detroit turned the ball over on downs instead of attempting a 45-yard field goal to extend their lead to three possessions.
The missed opportunity allowed the 49ers to capitalize, and they eventually gained momentum, tying the game and taking the lead.
Later, on another 4th-and-3 from the 49ers’ 30-yard line, Campbell once again chose to go for it, and Jared Goff’s underthrown pass to Amon-Ra St. Brown fell incomplete.
Had the Lions attempted a 47-yard field goal and succeeded, they could have tied the game. Instead, they gave the ball back to a surging 49ers offense.
As the game progressed, the Lions found themselves in another critical situation.
They were down by 10 points with just over three minutes to play but managed to drive down to the two-yard line.
However, instead of passing the ball and keeping the clock stopped, Campbell chose to run, and Montgomery was stuffed on first down. Detroit had to burn a timeout, and then managed to convert on a 4th-and-1 to make it 34-31. But because of the timeout, the Lions had little time left to execute an onside kick, which San Francisco recovered, sealing the victory and ending Detroit’s Super Bowl hopes.
While other factors like Jahmyr Gibbs’ fumble and Josh Reynolds’ drops played a role in the loss, Campbell’s aggressive decisions undeniably shifted the momentum in the 49ers’ favor.
The loss served as a painful reminder of how high-risk play-calling could lead to disastrous outcomes, especially in big moments.
Despite the criticism, Campbell has not backed down from his aggressive philosophy in 2024. The Lions are one of just two teams in the NFL that have attempted 20 or more fourth-down conversions this season, with Detroit attempting 22.
The Lions have also been successful, converting 68.2% of their fourth-down tries, the fifth-highest rate in the league.
For the Lions, Campbell’s commitment to aggressive play-calling has been a key factor in their transformation from a mediocre team to a Super Bowl contender.
When you have a less talented roster, taking risks on fourth down can help level the playing field. However, the situation in Detroit has changed.
The Lions are no longer an underdog team; they are one of the most talented squads in the league, and with that comes higher expectations.
Week in and week out, the Lions are fielding the superior team, which begs the question: should Campbell continue his ultra-aggressive approach, or is it time to dial things back?
While the aggressive strategy has led to some dominant performances and blowout victories this season, there is a significant risk.
A few missed conversions could allow opposing teams to close the gap, as seen in last season’s NFC Championship game.
In a matchup with other Super Bowl contenders, such as the Eagles, Bills, or Chiefs, missed fourth downs could provide the opposition with additional chances to score, potentially exposing the vulnerabilities in Detroit’s defense.
The Lions are certainly well-equipped for success on fourth down. Jared Goff is playing at a high level and is one of the most efficient passers in the league.
Detroit’s running game, led by David Montgomery—nicknamed “Knuckles”—is one of the top rushing attacks in the NFL, and their offensive line is among the best at creating holes for running backs.
Montgomery, in particular, is a powerful back capable of picking up crucial yards on short-yardage situations.
But the question remains: what is the right balance between aggression and caution?
How can Campbell ensure that he is making the right calls without putting his team at unnecessary risk?
Legendary coach Nick Saban weighed in on this issue during an appearance on the Pat McAfee show.
He explained that when he had a team capable of gaining a yard or less, he believed in his players and trusted them to convert. Saban praised Campbell for his faith in his players and his willingness to take risks when it matters most.
Saban also emphasized the importance of having an offense that can win the game.
He believes that when a team is in a position to win, they should take the opportunity to do so, rather than playing it safe.
This aggressive mentality has been a hallmark of Campbell’s coaching style, and Saban’s endorsement suggests that Campbell’s philosophy is sound—provided it is applied wisely.
As Detroit enters the final stretch of the regular season, the team is in a strong position for the playoffs.
They hold a 1.5-game lead over the Eagles for the top overall seed and are also 1.5 games ahead of the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North race. With a chance to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, the Lions are on the cusp of something special.
However, Campbell must find the right balance between aggression and caution if Detroit is to reach the promised land.
The Lions have the talent and the momentum to make a deep playoff run, but they cannot afford to let their aggressive nature become a liability. Campbell must learn when to push the envelope and when to take a more conservative approach.
If the Lions want to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, they must be smart with their risks and know when to walk away from the table.
This season presents the best chance Detroit has had in decades to win a Super Bowl.
The team is poised for success, with Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson garnering interest as a potential head coach for 2025 and Defensive Coordinator Aaron Glenn likely to be courted for similar roles.
Quarterback Jared Goff, 30 years old, is playing some of the best football of his career, and his $212 million contract is set to kick in soon, along with other significant contracts across the roster. The window for a championship is wide open.
With the Kansas City Chiefs looking vulnerable despite their impressive 11-1 record, the Lions have an opportunity to capitalize on the current state of the league.
However, their success will depend on how well Campbell manages his aggressive play-calling.
If the risk outweighs the reward, Detroit’s Super Bowl aspirations could quickly come to an end.
Dan Campbell and the Lions will continue to take risks, but the key will be knowing when those risks are justified.
With the right balance, this could be Detroit’s best chance to win a championship in franchise history.