Detroit The most anticipated present for Lions fans this holiday season is backordered. In actuality, 67 years had passed.
Seven weeks before the Super Bowl, however, we’re still discussing the Lions’ justifiable aspirations to end their championship drought and throw the grandest of all parades down Woodward Avenue—all the while lining the coffers of tens of thousands of sports fans nationwide, not just in Detroit. Since months before the season started, the Lions have been the most-bet team to win Super Bowl LIX. For those who backed the Lions early, such as when they were listed at 12-1 last spring, that could be excellent news. And it might be terrible news for Vegas, which is holding its breath collectively even if it isn’t officially choosing sides.
“Yeah, for us, it’s a pretty good liability out there,” stated Johnny Avello, director of sportsbook and racing operations at DraftKings, a company that provides sports betting in over twenty states. As they continue to play well, this team has been a favourite throughout the entire season, from the start to the present.
“I can tell you, it’s certainly the biggest loss we have on any team, and it’s pretty sizeable.”
The Lions, who are 13-2 after rebounding back from a loss to the Buffalo Bills with a strong win over the Chicago Bears last Sunday, are among the Super Bowl favourites at BetMGM, with odds of +400, or 4-1. This means that if you stake $100, you could win $400. The Lions are slightly behind the favourite, the Kansas City Chiefs, who jumped ahead of them at +375 after their Christmas Day victory. The Lions have been in and out of the top slot since becoming the Super Bowl favourites for the first time in franchise history last month, when they moved to 10-1 on the season.
After they defeated the Green Bay Packers and moved to 12-1, the odds dropped as low as +280 or +290. Despite all of the injuries, particularly on the defensive end, the Lions have maintained their position in the Super Bowl odds hierarchy, despite some sportsbooks pushing them behind the Bills following their 48-42 victory at Ford Field on December 15.
This is partly due to the fact that the Chiefs and Bills, two of the top three Super Bowl favourites, will have to compete for the AFC Championship. According to BetMGM, the Lions are +165 to win the NFC, with the Philadelphia Eagles coming in second at +325. The Bills and Chiefs are both +200 to win the AFC.
Avello would not elaborate on the precise amount that DraftKings and Vegas could be responsible for in the event that Detroit wins the Super Bowl, but it is probably in the tens of millions. According to Avello, the Lions’ momentum in the gambling markets has been strong and steady throughout the season, partly due to their near-miss in the promised land the previous season and partly because of how entertaining they have been to watch, with an explosive offence led by quarterback Jared Goff and company.
Even prior to the season, they were wagered,” Avello stated. “I would say right around Week 4 is when (bettors) have been betting on them pretty steadily.” Last January, Wade Fink, a criminal defence lawyer who also bets on sports, picked the Lions at 17-1 and wagered $2,500, which would yield $45,000.
The 36-year-old Fink, who operates the gambling website spreadsandlocks.com on Instagram (it’s @spreadsandlock on X, formerly Twitter), acknowledges that he isn’t as confident in the Lions now as he was earlier in the season because of the mounting injuries, which include several important players suffering season-ending injuries. However, he sees little point in pressing the cash-out button considering the Lions’ current position in the odds (4-1). Before the result is known, the cash-out enables bettors to hedge their wagers and receive an early payout—albeit one that is greatly reduced.
The cash-out option on Fink’s Lions’ wager was $7,200 as of Christmas Day, meaning that his investment had a nearly 3-to-1 return. In recent months, Fink, who won six figures as the winner of Hollywood Casino at Greektown’s survivor pool last season and $26,000 on Tigers ace Tarik Skubal to win the American League Cy Young Award this season, has had some significant sports betting successes. “Seventeen-to-1 was a gift from the sports book before the season started,” Fink said. “I thought there were very few circumstances in which the Lions would finish below 10-1.
Dan Campbell leads the league’s top staff and is the league’s best coach. I therefore understood that the wager would be extremely profitable. “I’m not going to cash this out. I would be giving up too much equity.
Naturally, securing the No. 1 seed in the NFC, which would grant them a first-round playoff bye and subsequent home games through the NFC Championship Game, will be crucial to the Lions’ hopes of winning the Super Bowl. They are just a hair ahead of the 13-two Minnesota Vikings for the top seed. The Lions will play the Vikings at home to end the regular season after their Monday night visit to the San Francisco 49ers. This game might determine the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
The loser would start the playoffs on the road after dropping to the No. 5 seed, which would mean it would not receive an opening bye. This Sunday’s Vikings game against the Packers would guarantee the Lions the top seed prior to the regular-season finale (which still has a date and time; it’s a prime candidate to be flexed by TV). A defeat there would also guarantee a Lions victory.
With a 29-10 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day, the Chiefs (14-1), who have won three of the last five games and the last two Super Bowls, secured the top seed in the AFC over the Bills (12-3). However, it appears that even the Chiefs’ expertise isn’t stopping gamblers from supporting the Lions.
According to Bill O’Brien, sportsbook manager for PowerPlay.com, “fans are getting behind them as a fresh team to bet on, rather than the usual favourites like the Chiefs and Bills.” According to O’Brien, the Lions’ experience making it to the NFC Championship Game the previous season—where they lost to the 49ers, 34-31, although leading at halftime, 24-7—provided a significant boost to Detroit’s significant support from the betting markets.
With 53% of all Michigan wagers and 69% of the total money, the Lions are undoubtedly the most-bet team in the state to win the Super Bowl, according to DraftKings. In comparison, the Chiefs are next-closest in Michigan, with 9% of the bets and 4% of the handle.
With the Lions receiving 17% of the overall revenue and 15% of all wagers, the difference is still substantial even though it isn’t that great across the rest of the nation. You can understand why Vegas is keeping a close eye on the Lions, especially considering all the fans who purchased them at odds of 12-1 or higher prior to the season. That’s the most total handle of any club and the second-highest total bets (only surpassed by the Chiefs).
It’s not that Vegas is concerned about going bankrupt. This season, the Lions have crushed the spirits of many opponents, but they are unable to crush big, bad Vegas, Super Bowl, or bust. They can definitely cause a dent, though. “No, no,” laughed Avello when asked if the Lions could force the bookies to go bankrupt. “There’s a lot of football still to play, and the Lions have a chance to win it all. We are aware that we will experience losses each year, and occasionally they will be quite significant.
“We distribute those. It’s a component of the game. The Super Bowl will take place at the Superdome in New Orleans on February 9.