How the Lakers Can Cope Without LeBron James for the Next Few Weeks
Take a deep breath, Lakers fans. It may feel like things are falling apart right now. LeBron James suffered a strained groin on Saturday against the Boston Celtics, and it looks like he’ll miss at least 1-2 weeks. Given his age and where we are in the season, it’s easy to worry about his long-term health implications.
Let’s rewind to 2023, when the season played out in a similar way. A slow start led to a trade deadline overhaul, and the Lakers hit the ground running, winning their first three games with the revamped roster by a combined 34 points. But in the third game, on Feb. 26 against the Mavericks, James injured his right foot, sidelining him for a month. He returned for the final eight regular-season games, and it was enough for the Lakers to make a deep playoff run to the Western Conference finals.
James’ short-term injury should not be a huge concern. Similar to his brief partnership with Luka Dončić, there’s little need for more adjustment between them. What matters most is that James is healthy by mid-April. If so, the Lakers will still be a major contender, though not necessarily the Western Conference favorite. The bigger question now is how the team will manage during his absence.
The answer likely involves some short-term struggles. The Lakers currently hold the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, leading the Memphis Grizzlies by 1.5 games and the Houston Rockets by two. They have a solid five-game lead over the Golden State Warriors, though that will depend on health elsewhere. The Lakers have the sixth-toughest remaining schedule in the NBA, with matchups against Memphis, Golden State, and Houston. However, none of these games occur until March 29, giving James a good chance to return by then.
There are pros and cons to falling out of the top three, if that happens. The biggest risk is an earlier matchup with the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder, who are having an outstanding season. However, the Lakers might not be too intimidated by them, considering Dončić’s success against them last season. The key benefit of a lower seeding is avoiding a first-round matchup with the revamped Golden State Warriors, who feature Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler. Despite Golden State’s strong play, the Lakers’ current three-game lead over them with fewer than 20 games left is significant. The Warriors will likely finish in the No. 6 spot, making it beneficial to drop out of No. 3. There isn’t a team in the NBA that would prefer facing Curry and Butler over an inexperienced Rockets team in the first round.
For now, the Lakers will adjust to life without James, but they are better equipped to handle this than many teams. Dončić, of course, has vast experience running an offense on his own, and Austin Reaves has quietly stepped up when James has missed time. Over the last two seasons, Reaves has averaged 21.7 points, 6.1 assists, and 5.1 rebounds in the 14 games without James. Ball-handling should not be an issue. If Rui Hachimura returns before James, that would be a bonus.
Despite having a roster built around Dončić, James, and Reaves, the Lakers have not been an offense-heavy team since the trade. In the 12 games since Dončić’s debut, the Lakers rank No. 15 in offense and No. 2 in defense. Maintaining average offense with Dončić and Reaves taking on more of the workload seems feasible, especially with some expected regression. Since Dončić joined, the Lakers have shot just 36% on wide-open 3s and 32.4% on open 3s. These numbers would place them near the bottom of the league in both categories, although they shot better before Dončić’s arrival. The Lakers do have better shooting potential with him, which means there’s room for improvement.
On the flip side, the Lakers have been exceptionally lucky with opponents’ shooting. Teams have made only 34.4% of wide-open 3s and 30.3% of open 3s since Dončić’s debut. This shooting luck on defense could be the key to their success, especially given the current makeup of their roster.
Remember, the Lakers didn’t acquire a center at the trade deadline after backing out of the Mark Williams trade. Jaxson Hayes has played admirably, but he’s only been on the court for about half of the time.