BYU Basketball vs. Alabama NCAA Tournament Score Projection
NEWARK, N.J. – BYU basketball is gearing up for its first Sweet 16 appearance since 2011. Similar to 14 years ago, they are facing a No. 2 seed from the SEC.
This time, it’s the Alabama Crimson Tide, the nation’s highest-scoring offense.
BYU secured wins against No. 11 seed VCU and No. 3 seed Wisconsin to earn a spot in the regional semifinal.
Meanwhile, Alabama defeated No. 15 seed Robert Morris and No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s to advance.
Just like their matchup with Wisconsin, BYU enters Thursday night’s clash against Alabama as the underdog.
However, BYU has gone 5-1 in its last six games when playing as the underdog.
BYU vs. Alabama
Regional Semifinals – 2025 NCAA Tournament
Location: Newark, New Jersey
Arena: Prudential Center
Date: Thursday, March 27, 2025
Tip-Off: 5:09 p.m. (MDT) / 7:09 p.m. (EDT)
TV: CBS
Radio: KSL NewsRadio (102.7 FM, 1160 AM in Utah — Extended pregame starts at 3 p.m. MDT / 5 p.m. EDT)
Offense Takes Center Stage in This Sweet 16 Battle
Two of the most potent offenses in the country will face off in this showdown.
Since February 12, BYU has held the No. 1 ranking in adjusted offensive efficiency nationwide. Meanwhile, Alabama leads the country in scoring, averaging over 90 points per game.
Expect a game played at an electrifying pace.
“They have the fastest tempo in the country. … But we also like to play fast,” said BYU assistant coach Will Voigt to KSL Sports. “So I think it’s going to be a great game for fans. Both teams love to push the pace and have a lot of offensive firepower. It should be an exciting matchup.”
A prolonged scoring drought could be costly in this game. Either team could take advantage of a four- or five-minute cold stretch and create an insurmountable lead.
Alabama boasts six players who average double figures in scoring. On the other side, BYU has seven players averaging at least 7.3 points per game, with a rotation that can stretch to 11 players if necessary.
Expect Full Rosters to Be Available
By late March, no team is completely injury-free. Players are dealing with soreness and bruises, which is typical at this stage of the season. A look inside the locker rooms before and after NCAA Tournament games reveals plenty of ice packs.
Despite the wear and tear, both teams should have their full rosters available.
BYU has been at full strength throughout its tournament run since Kanon Catchings returned from a knee injury.
The freshman forward logged just four minutes in the win over VCU and didn’t play against Wisconsin.
For Alabama, big man Grant Nelson suffered a left knee injury in the SEC Tournament. However, he returned to the starting lineup in Sunday’s NCAA Tournament victory over Saint Mary’s.
Alabama head coach Nate Oats expects Nelson to be ready to play Thursday night.
“Yeah, for the most part,” Oats said when asked about Nelson and Cliff Omoruyi’s health. “I talked to Grant. He said he was at 90 percent, but he’s been at 90 percent most of the year. Nobody is at 100 percent at this point. Cliff (Omoruyi) is completely healthy. Grant is close, just not quite 100 percent.
“We’re about as healthy as we can be this time of year. Grant is probably the furthest from 100 percent, but he told me he hasn’t been fully healthy in a month. I think we’ll have our full roster available.”
Battle-Tested Programs
Both BYU and Alabama have earned victories against top-tier opponents this season.
Including postseason play, BYU has secured 10 wins against Quad 1 teams. Alabama, meanwhile, has recorded 12 victories against some of the best teams in college basketball.
BYU Players to Watch
With offense taking the spotlight, who could make an impact on the defensive side?
A couple of names come to mind.
First, BYU center Keba Keita. The former Utah transfer has always been an elite athlete, but now he’s combining that athleticism with a physical presence that is difficult for opposing big men to handle.
Keita is averaging 7.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game in the NCAA Tournament, along with 9.5 points on offense.
On defense, he’s been a dominant force, and his battle with Clifford Omoruyi in the paint will be key.
Another BYU player to keep an eye on is guard Trey Stewart.
The senior guard has ties to Newark, New Jersey—his father, Ray Stewart, is from the area.
Stewart is one of BYU’s top defensive guards. Slowing down Alabama star Mark Sears will be tough, but Stewart’s job will be to make things as difficult as possible for the Consensus All-American.
Stewart made a big impact in BYU’s win over Wisconsin, finishing the game with a dunk after the buzzer that electrified the crowd.
He’s a player to watch in this matchup.
BYU vs. Alabama: Score Projection
I’m predicting another upset for BYU.
Expect Richie Saunders to deliver another 20+ point performance, while Egor Demin could be the “X factor.”
Demin excelled against Wisconsin, finishing with an 8-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Like Wisconsin, Alabama doesn’t force many turnovers, ranking 316th nationally in that category. That bodes well for Demin, who is playing his best basketball of the season.
Additionally, BYU’s defense is stronger than many believe. Alabama will put up points—that’s inevitable—but I trust BYU’s ability to string together crucial defensive stops more than I do Alabama’s.
For the first time since 1981, BYU advances to the Elite Eight.
Final Score Projection: BYU 93, Alabama 91