ESPN bracketology expert details what Kentucky basketball’s NCAA Tournament seed might be.
Kentucky basketball coach Mark Pope speaks to the media after the Wildcats’ 91-83 win over the Missouri Tigers in Columbia on Saturday, March 8, 2025. By John Clay
Postseason play is just around the corner for Kentucky men’s basketball.
Mark Pope’s Wildcats are the 6 seed for this week’s SEC Tournament in Nashville, and UK will begin play in the event on Thursday night in the second round against either 11 seed Georgia or 14 seed Oklahoma.
Pope has pledged to make SEC Tournament success a priority during his time at UK, a welcomed declaration for a UK fan base that has been starved for success in the conference tournament of late. But there’s another, obvious, reason why all associated with UK basketball should want a strong performance from the Wildcats this week in the league tourney.
NCAA Tournament seeding implications.
This was laid out by ESPN bracketology expert Joe Lunardi on Wednesday afternoon during a conference call with media members.
In his Wednesday morning bracketology update, Lunardi had Kentucky as a 3 seed playing its first- and second-round games in Denver. This latest projection from Lunardi has UK lining up against 14 seed Utah Valley — the school where Pope got his head coaching start — in the round of 64. The winner of that contest would face the winner of 6 seed Saint Mary’s and 11 seed VCU in the round of 32.
This projection calls for Kentucky to be part of the West Region, which will have its Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds played in San Francisco. The 1 seed in this projected region is Florida.
Lunardi said Wednesday that Kentucky’s tournament profile, to him at least, is that of a 3 seed, with a 2 seed likely not in the cards.
“I don’t see them as a 2, without probably playing on Sunday (in the SEC Tournament championship game). And that’s realistically as far ahead as we can project the committee reacting,” Lunardi said after being asked by the Herald-Leader about UK’s outlook.
“When (the SEC Tournament championship game) tips off at 1:30 on Sunday, Kentucky’s seed is done,” Lunardi added.
Of course, NCAA Tournament bracketology remains an incredibly fluid process with just days left until Selection Sunday. The full 68-team field for this year’s men’s NCAA Tournament will be revealed at 6 p.m. EDT Sunday during a made-for-TV announcement on CBS.
Part of this fluid process of projecting what the tournament field will look like — as well as what seeds teams will earn — involves evaluating how programs fare in conference tournaments.
Should Kentucky get past Georgia or Oklahoma in Thursday’s second round of the SEC Tournament, then Pope’s team would play 3 seed Alabama in a Friday quarterfinal. The Crimson Tide have already topped the Wildcats twice this season.
That potential game would give Kentucky the chance to record a ninth win this season over an opponent ranked in the top 15 of the AP poll at the time of the game. Alabama is currently the No. 5 team in the AP poll. UK is No. 15.
But, Lunardi listed Alabama as one of three teams that he currently has slotted as a 2 seed for March Madness that he doesn’t think the Wildcats can catch. The other schools in this regard are Tennessee (a team UK has already defeated twice this season) and Michigan State.
Lunardi said that he could see Kentucky catching and passing Texas Tech for the final 2-seed spot.
It’s worth noting that Kentucky enters this week’s SEC Tournament with a significant measure of roster clarity. Fifth-year guards Kerr Kriisa and Jaxson Robinson are both done for the season due to injuries, but the 10 other scholarship Wildcats should be good to go.
UK’s first injury report for the SEC Tournament will be released Wednesday night.
ESPN currently projects head coach Mark Pope’s Kentucky team to be a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
ESPN currently projects head coach Mark Pope’s Kentucky team to be a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournaments
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi explains UK basketball’s NCAA Tournament outlook
On Wednesday’s media call, Lunardi said Kentucky’s spot as a 6 seed in the SEC Tournament makes it more likely that they will end up as a 3 seed in the national postseason.
Kentucky didn’t secure a double-bye in the SEC Tournament. As such, Kentucky begins tournament play in the second round instead of in the quarterfinals.
“I think a 2 is really unlikely,” Lunardi reiterated about UK’s NCAA Tournament outlook. “They’re more likely to move down than up. But holding at 3 is significant.”
That’s because — should chalk hold in the NCAA Tournament bracket — a 3 seed would face a 2 seed in the Sweet 16, rather than a 1 seed.
Currently, Kentucky shares the 3 seed line in Lunardi’s projections with Iowa State, St. John’s and Texas A&M.
Right behind them are Lunardi’s 4 seeds: Clemson (which beat UK in December), Maryland, Purdue and Wisconsin.